Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Elias DiazBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Díaz homered to right (343 feet).4–5
- 4Alvarez scored on Winn wild pitch, Walker to second, Paredes to third on wild pitch. Texas Rangers challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–5
- 4Alvarez scored on Winn wild pitch, Walker to second on wild pitch by Winn, Paredes to third on wild pitch by Winn.3–5
- 4Walker reached on infield single to first, Peña scored, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third.3–4
- 4Díaz hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Duran scored, Osuna to second.3–3
- 4Osuna singled to right, Carter scored, Duran to third.2–3
- 3Trammell singled to left, Alvarez scored and Walker scored, Altuve to second.1–3
- 3Langford homered to left (348 feet).1–1
- 2Wade Jr. singled to right, Altuve scored, Smith to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -126 / HOU +104
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 48.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −7 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +10 Elo | HOU 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 27–2718th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–61 | 58–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 19–36 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 30–25 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 57–46–7 | 58–47–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 24–33 HOU in their last 57 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 57.