Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Peña singled to center, Diaz scored, Peña to second, Smith to third.3–1
- 4Clement hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.3–0
- 4Sánchez singled to left, Okamoto scored on error, Sánchez safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Trammell, Springer safe at third on error.2–0
- 2Kirk homered to left center (373 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML TOR +129 / HOU -156
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −26 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 29–2715th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 16th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–59 | 60–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 24–39 | 20–27 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 54–54–4 | 60–47–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–14 HOU in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.