Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caglianone homered to center (420 feet), Jensen scored.3–6
- 6Happ homered to right center (381 feet).3–4
- 4Kelly doubled to left, Hoerner scored on error and Bregman scored, Kelly safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr..2–4
- 3Caglianone doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–4
- 2Rojas singled to right, Massey scored and Rave scored.0–3
- 1Caglianone homered to center (448 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML CHC -148 / KC +138
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.7%, market 58.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -142
- KC +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −16 | CHC: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +97 Elo | CHC 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3033–25 | Road vs home | 28–2921st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301551 | Elo rating | 146627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–60 | 58–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–46 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 44–33 |
| Overs–unders | 60–51–6 | 53–61–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–4 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.