Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pedro RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perez grounded out to third, Witt Jr. scored.6–4
- 8Witt Jr. singled to right, Tolbert scored.6–3
- 8Ramirez homered to right (363 feet).6–2
- 7Bregman singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.5–2
- 5Jensen homered to left (356 feet).4–2
- 2Suzuki singled to right, Swanson scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.4–1
- 2Crow-Armstrong reached on infield single to second, Kelly scored and Ramirez scored, Swanson to second, Swanson safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Massey.2–1
- 1Collins doubled to center, Jensen scored, Perez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML CHC -165 / KC +153
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.3%, market 61.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -158
- KC +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −7 | CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +58 Elo | CHC 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3032–25 | Road vs home | 28–2818th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301549 | Elo rating | 146727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–60 | 58–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–46 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 44–32 |
| Overs–unders | 59–51–6 | 52–61–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–4 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.