Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tucker tripled to right, Freeman scored.2–4
- 3Pages doubled to center, E. Hernández scored, Rortvedt to third.1–4
- 2Moreno doubled to center, Carroll scored, Moreno to third.0–4
- 2Waldschmidt hit sacrifice bunt, Locklear scored, Waldschmidt to first on throwing error by pitcher Wrobleski, Waldschmidt to second.0–3
- 1Marte homered to left (385 feet), Moreno scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML LAD -134 / ARI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -129
- ARI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +12 Elo | LAD 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3037–24 | Road vs home | 33–248th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–64 | 65–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 46–62 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 46–22 |
| Overs–unders | 53–62–2 | 47–63–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 28–26 ARI in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 54.