San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis RengifoBatting3-5
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Kohl DrakePitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrill singled to right, Machado scored.5–1
- 6Fermin singled to center, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.4–1
- 3Moreno singled to right, Carroll scored.3–1
- 3France hit sacrifice fly to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Rengifo to third.3–0
- 3Machado grounded out to shortstop, Cronenworth scored, Rengifo to second, Tatis Jr. to third.2–0
- 1Machado grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tatis Jr. scored, Rengifo out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML SD -106 / ARI -101
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- SD: Elo 50.1%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -102
- ARI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −24 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Kohl Drake: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +1 Elo | SD 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 32–227th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–58 | 63–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–35 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 39–23 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 52–61–2 | 47–60–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 25–23 ARI in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 48.