San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cronenworth singled to right, Song scored, Fermin to third.9–4
- 7McCann homered to left center (395 feet), Tawa scored.8–4
- 7Arenado homered to left center (400 feet), Barrosa scored.8–2
- 7Fermin doubled to center, Merrill scored, Song to third.8–0
- 6Machado singled to center, Rengifo scored.7–0
- 2Merrill singled to right, Rengifo scored, Machado to third.6–0
- 2Machado singled to right, Bowen scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Rengifo to third.5–0
- 1Bogaerts singled to center, Merrill scored.3–0
- 1Merrill singled to right, Machado scored, Merrill to second.2–0
- 1Machado doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML SD +111 / ARI -118
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.6%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +18 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +32 Elo | ARI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 31–216th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–57 | 62–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–34 | 19–29 |
| Underdog | 38–23 | 43–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–61–2 | 45–60–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 24–22 ARI in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 46.