Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-3
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5Manzardo singled to center, DeLauter scored, Bazzana to third.0–5
- 5DeLauter doubled to right, Ramírez scored and Kwan scored.0–4
- 3DeLauter singled to center, Halpin scored, Kwan to third.0–2
- 3Bailey homered to center (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 63%
- ML ARI +157 / CLE -191
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.5%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -169
- ARI +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 14th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 27–2819th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 149915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–50 | 56–56 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 17–38 |
| Underdog | 43–21 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 45–58–8 | 52–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–2 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.