Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- James McCannBatting4-6, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12McCann singled to right, Locklear scored.8–7
- 10Triolo grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rodríguez scored on fielding error by first baseman Locklear.7–7
- 10Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Locklear scored on error, Barrosa safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Triolo.7–6
- 9Reynolds homered to right center (402 feet).6–6
- 9Lowe homered to right center (415 feet), Mangum scored.6–5
- 8Ozuna reached on infield single to shortstop, Gonzales scored, Rodríguez to third.6–3
- 8Rodríguez singled to center, O'Hearn scored, Gonzales to third.6–2
- 8O'Hearn doubled to right, Reynolds scored.6–1
- 6Moreno grounded into fielder's choice to third, McCann scored, Carroll out at second, Waldschmidt to third.6–0
- 4Waldschmidt scored on error, Perdomo safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lowe.5–0
- 3Arenado singled to left, Moreno scored, Kepler to third.4–0
- 2Tawa scored on error, Carroll safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Lowe, McCann to second.3–0
- 2Tawa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kepler scored, Arenado out at second.2–0
- 1Moreno grounded out to second, Perdomo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML ARI -108 / PIT -111
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.6%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -101
- ARI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–30 | Road vs home | 29–2613th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 12th of 301506 | Elo rating | 150513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–50 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 39–21 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 43–56–8 | 61–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–11 PIT in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.