Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Max KeplerBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lowe reached on infield single to first, Cook scored, Mangum to third.2–3
- 8Reynolds doubled to center, Lowe scored.2–2
- 6Lowe reached on infield single to shortstop, Mangum scored.2–1
- 6Kepler doubled to right, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored, Marte to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML ARI -104 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.3%, market 51.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -105
- ARI +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +9 Elo | PIT 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 28–2614th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–50 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 38–21 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 43–55–8 | 61–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–10 PIT in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.