Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting4-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kohl DrakePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Halpin grounded out to shortstop, Manzardo scored.12–8
- 9Perdomo singled to center, Barrosa scored and McCann scored, Perdomo to second, Carroll to third.12–7
- 8Kwan singled to left, Halpin scored and Bazzana scored, Kwan to second. Cleveland Guardians challenged: call on the field was overturned.10–7
- 8Bailey hit sacrifice fly to center, Martínez scored.10–5
- 8Halpin singled to left, Manzardo scored, Martínez to second.10–4
- 8DeLauter homered to right center (414 feet).10–3
- 8Arenado homered to left (388 feet).10–2
- 7Carroll homered to center (403 feet), McCann scored and Waldschmidt scored.9–2
- 7McCann doubled to right, Arenado scored and Vargas scored.6–2
- 7Vargas singled to right, Marte scored, Arenado to second.4–2
- 7Perdomo homered to right (391 feet).3–2
- 5Moreno grounded into fielder's choice to third, Carroll scored, Perdomo out at second in rundown.2–2
- 5Perdomo reached on infield single to first, Waldschmidt scored on throwing error by first baseman Hoskins, Perdomo to second, Carroll safe at third on error.1–2
- 1Hoskins homered to center (424 feet), DeLauter scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 62%
- ML ARI +152 / CLE -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.5%, market 62.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -164
- ARI +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +11 | ARI: Kohl Drake: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +38 Elo | CLE 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 62.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 27–2719th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 11th of 301511 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–50 | 56–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 17–37 |
| Underdog | 42–21 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 44–58–8 | 51–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–2 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.