Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting1-4
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose FrancoPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Myers scored on Williams wild pitch, I. Johnson to third on wild pitch by Williams.0–2
- 5Myers scored on Williams wild pitch, I. Johnson to third on wild pitch by Williams.0–2
- 1Bleday homered to right (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML CLE -144 / CIN +119
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 49.3%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -129
- CIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +8 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Caleb Ferguson: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +5 Elo | CIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.226th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–27 | Road vs home | 22–2928th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Elo rating | 148125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–53 | 54–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–35 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders | 51–57 | 57–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–9 CIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.