Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rocchio hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, DeLauter scored, Bazzana to second.6–5
- 5DeLauter hit sacrifice fly to left, Ramírez scored.5–5
- 4Stewart singled to left, Arroyo scored and De La Cruz scored.4–5
- 4Arroyo singled to center, Stephenson scored.4–3
- 4Stephenson doubled to left, Lowe scored.4–2
- 3Stewart homered to center (416 feet).4–1
- 1Manzardo homered to right (369 feet), Ramírez scored, DeLauter scored and Bazzana scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 59%
- ML CLE +136 / CIN -164
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.7%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -147
- CLE +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +20 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +26 Elo | CIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.226th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 10th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 22–2827th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Elo rating | 148225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–53 | 54–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–35 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders | 50–57 | 56–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–9 CIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.