Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte singled to right, Perdomo scored, Moreno to third.4–1
- 8Moreno singled to right, Carroll and Waldschmidt scored on fielding error by right fielder Martínez, Moreno to second, Perdomo safe at third.3–1
- 8Perdomo singled to right, Tawa scored, Carroll to second, Waldschmidt to third.1–1
- 1Hoskins singled to left, Ramírez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML ARI +113 / CLE -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -123
- ARI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | ARI: Mitch Bratt: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +13 Elo | CLE 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 27–2616th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–50 | 56–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 17–36 |
| Underdog | 41–21 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 44–57–8 | 51–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–2 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.