Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-3
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kepler singled to right, Moreno scored, Marte to second.3–0
- 4Moreno homered to center (407 feet), Carroll scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML ARI +118 / PIT -143
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -128
- ARI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +4 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +7 Elo | PIT 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 29–2715th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–50 | 50–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 21–36 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 44–56–8 | 62–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–11 PIT in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.