San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HartPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Devers homered to left (359 feet).4–5
- 5Campusano singled to left, France scored, Merrill to second.3–5
- 5Basabe homered to center (404 feet).3–4
- 4Cavanaugh grounded out to shortstop, Devers scored, Adames to second, Lee to third.2–4
- 4Adames singled to left, Eldridge scored, Lee to second, Devers to third.1–4
- 2Cronenworth reached on infield single to shortstop, Bogaerts scored and Sheets scored, Rengifo to second.0–4
- 2Merrill homered to center (422 feet), France scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML SF +109 / SD -131
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- SD: Elo 56.7%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −13 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Kyle Hart: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +47 Elo | SD 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3021–37 | Road vs home | 31–2510th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 151510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–56 | 56–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 18–33 |
| Underdog | 37–31 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 51–50–10 | 49–60–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–30 SD in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 48.