Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Eldridge homered to right (369 feet), Arraez scored.8–2
- 8Chourio grounded out to shortstop, Hamilton scored, Turang to second.8–0
- 7Lara tripled to right, Yelich scored and Vaughn scored.7–0
- 5Lara grounded into fielder's choice to second, Contreras scored, Vaughn out at second.5–0
- 4Turang singled to center, Mitchell scored and Pratt scored, Hamilton to second.4–0
- 4Pratt singled to right, Lara scored, Mitchell to third.2–0
- 3Chourio singled to right, Pratt scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -150 / SF +124
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.6%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -134
- SF +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −4 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +82 Elo | MIL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 3030–20 | Road vs home | 25–2621st of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301564 | Elo rating | 148126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–49 | 52–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 36–41 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 21–8 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders | 47–56–3 | 48–48–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–15 SF in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.