Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4
- Brandon SproatPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Giants- Grant McCrayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4McCray homered to left center (406 feet), Adames scored.0–3
- 3Arraez singled to right, J. Rodríguez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -136 / SF +113
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- SF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +5 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +60 Elo | MIL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.227th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–19 | Road vs home | 24–2621st of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301566 | Elo rating | 147826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–48 | 51–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 36–40 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 21–8 | 34–29 |
| Overs–unders | 47–55–3 | 48–47–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–14 SF in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.