Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Thomas PannonePitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Giants- Daniel SusacBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cavanaugh singled to center, Eldridge scored, Ramos to second.3–16
- 8Ramos singled to left, Koss scored, Eldridge to third.3–15
- 8Susac homered to left center (379 feet).3–14
- 7Lee singled to left, Eldridge scored, Ramos to second.3–13
- 7Eldridge grounded into fielder's choice to second, Koss scored, Arraez out at second.3–12
- 7Arraez singled to center, Gilbert scored, Koss to third.3–11
- 7Turang singled to left, Lara scored, Pratt to second, Vaughn to third.3–10
- 6Lee doubled to right, Devers scored and Ramos scored.2–10
- 6Devers grounded into fielder's choice to first, Arraez scored on error by catcher Sánchez, Ramos to second.2–8
- 6Ramos singled to right, J. Rodríguez scored and Koss scored, Arraez to third.2–7
- 6Arraez singled to center, Susac scored, Koss to second, J. Rodríguez to third.2–5
- 6Koss singled to left, Adames scored, J. Rodríguez to second, Susac to third.2–4
- 4Mitchell grounded out to pitcher, Bauers scored, Yelich to second.2–3
- 3Turang grounded into fielder's choice to first, Hamilton scored, Pratt out at second.1–3
- 2Susac homered to center (411 feet), Lee scored and Adames scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML MIL -109 / SF -111
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- SF: Elo 40.4%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -101
- MIL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −7 | MIL: Thomas Pannone (no track record yet) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +67 Elo | MIL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–20 | Road vs home | 25–2721st of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301566 | Elo rating | 147826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–49 | 52–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–41 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 21–8 | 35–30 |
| Overs–unders | 48–56–3 | 49–48–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 11–15 SF in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.