San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting1-3
- Adrian HouserPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Jase BowenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6France hit sacrifice fly to center, Rengifo scored.0–7
- 4France singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Rengifo scored.0–6
- 4Bowen homered to left (384 feet).0–4
- 3Bogaerts grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Merrill scored, Campusano out at second.0–3
- 1Campusano singled to left, Rengifo scored, France to third.0–2
- 1Machado hit sacrifice fly to left, Tatis Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML SF +129 / SD -156
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SD: Elo 57.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -140
- SF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +17 | SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Bradgley Rodriguez: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +53 Elo | SD 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3021–35 | Road vs home | 29–2510th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–55 | 55–54 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 17–32 |
| Underdog | 36–30 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–49–10 | 48–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–28 SD in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 46.