San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel SusacBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Luis RengifoBatting2-3
- Randy VasquezPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Susac hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored.4–1
- 2Bogaerts singled to center, France scored.3–1
- 2Susac homered to left (406 feet), Adames scored.3–0
- 1Devers hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramos scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML SF +137 / SD -166
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- SD: Elo 56.8%, market 59.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -148
- SF +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +6 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +48 Elo | SD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–35 | Road vs home | 29–2410th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15149th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–55 | 55–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 35–30 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–48–10 | 48–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 17–28 SD in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 45.