San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-3
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Barrosa hit sacrifice fly to center, Tawa scored, McCann to third.1–5
- 8McCann doubled to left, Arenado scored, Tawa to third.1–4
- 7Campusano reached on infield single to third, France scored on throwing error by third baseman Arenado, Rengifo safe at third on error.1–3
- 4Tawa homered to left (404 feet), Marte scored and Del Castillo scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML SD -107 / ARI -113
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.8%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -103
- SD +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +6 Elo | ARI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 30–217th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–56 | 61–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–34 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 38–22 | 43–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–60–2 | 45–59–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 24–21 ARI in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 45.