San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Workman doubled to left, Merrill scored, Song scored and France scored.4–10
- 9Tatis Jr. homered to center (465 feet).1–10
- 8Vargas tripled to right, Barrosa scored and Tawa scored.0–10
- 4Vargas doubled to center, Moreno scored and Perdomo scored.0–8
- 4Tawa hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored, Perdomo to third.0–6
- 4Moreno walked, Nootbaar scored, Perdomo to second, Carroll to third.0–5
- 4Carroll singled to right, Waldschmidt scored, Nootbaar to second.0–4
- 4Nootbaar singled to right, Locklear scored, Waldschmidt to third.0–3
- 3Tawa homered to left center (414 feet).0–2
- 3Moreno hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -128 / ARI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- SD: Elo 50.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +5 | SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Mitch Bratt: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD 0 Elo | SD 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–29 | Road vs home | 31–228th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–57 | 62–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–34 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 39–23 | 43–22 |
| Overs–unders | 51–61–2 | 46–60–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 25–22 ARI in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 47.