Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ryan WaldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Waldschmidt homered to center (411 feet), Barrosa scored.3–4
- 8Pages homered to left center (425 feet).3–2
- 7Edman singled to center, Betts scored, Tucker to second.2–2
- 6Freeman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Feduccia scored, Pages out at second, Ohtani to third.1–2
- 5Perdomo tripled to center, Tawa scored.0–2
- 2Arenado homered to left (370 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML LAD -180 / ARI +167
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.0%, market 63.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -172
- ARI +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 3.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +28 Elo | LAD 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3036–23 | Road vs home | 32–238th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301558 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–62 | 63–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 46–60 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 53–60–2 | 47–61–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 27–25 ARI in their last 52 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 52.