Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored, Freeman thrown out at second.5–6
- 7Isbel homered to right (370 feet), Massey scored.5–5
- 6Muncy doubled to right, Edman scored, Tucker scored and Rojas scored, Muncy to third.3–5
- 3Freeman singled to left, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.3–2
- 3Ohtani doubled to center, Feduccia scored.3–1
- 3Caglianone homered to right center (410 feet), Loftin scored.3–0
- 1Caglianone singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML KC +259 / LAD -282
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.5%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -265
- KC +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 2.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +5 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +127 Elo | LAD 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 76.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 74.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–40 | Road vs home | 33–238th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 27th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–60 | 53–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 46–63 |
| Underdog | 45–34 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 54–61–4 | 53–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–5 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.