Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5
- Mason BlackPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Feduccia homered to center (402 feet).2–4
- 3Ohtani homered to left center (397 feet), Rojas scored.2–3
- 3Perez singled to right, Caglianone scored.2–1
- 2Betts homered to left center (412 feet).1–1
- 2Rojas singled to right, Tolbert scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML KC +201 / LAD -217
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 66.0%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -206
- KC +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −4 | KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +115 Elo | LAD 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 3020–42 | Road vs home | 35–236th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 27th of 301464 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–60 | 53–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 46–65 |
| Underdog | 47–34 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 56–61–4 | 55–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–7 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.