Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kelenic singled to left, Nimmo scored, Duran to third.2–3
- 3Grissom doubled to left, Trout scored.1–3
- 3Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to right, Neto scored, Trout to third.1–2
- 3Neto singled to left, Meckler scored.1–1
- 1Pederson homered to center (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML TEX -142 / LAA +132
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.3%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -136
- LAA +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −2 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +58 Elo | TEX 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3028–32 | Road vs home | 25–3428th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 143728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–67 | 53–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–41 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders | 61–51–7 | 51–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 27–19 LAA in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 46.