San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lopez singled to center, Burger scored, Pederson to second.0–6
- 5Nimmo homered to left (350 feet).0–5
- 3Díaz doubled to left, Foscue scored.0–4
- 3Foscue tripled to left, Nimmo scored and Burger scored.0–3
- 3Nimmo singled to right, Langford scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML SF +138 / TEX -147
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.8%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -142
- SF +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +34 Elo | TEX 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 3022–39 | Road vs home | 29–2612th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–56 | 49–65 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 19–39 |
| Underdog | 40–31 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 53–51–10 | 60–47–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–5 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.