San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran homered to left (406 feet).5–1
- 9Lee hit sacrifice fly to center, McCray scored.5–0
- 8Lee homered to right center (385 feet).4–0
- 3Lee homered to right center (410 feet).3–0
- 2Basabe hit sacrifice fly to right, Gilbert scored.2–0
- 2Gilbert singled to right, Susac scored on fielding error by right fielder Nimmo, Gilbert to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML SF +109 / TEX -131
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.1%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −13 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +22 Elo | TEX 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 3021–38 | Road vs home | 28–2511th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301481 | Elo rating | 149319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–56 | 49–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 19–37 |
| Underdog | 38–31 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 52–50–10 | 59–46–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–4 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.