San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Osleivis BasabeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran hit a ground rule double, Burger scored, Seager to third.4–5
- 9Eldridge singled to right, Gilbert scored and McCray scored.4–4
- 8Duran doubled to right, Langford scored and Seager scored, Nimmo to third.2–4
- 7Basabe homered to left (377 feet), Gilbert scored.2–2
- 1Duran singled to right, Seager scored, Nimmo to third.0–2
- 1Nimmo doubled to right, Pederson scored, Seager to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 64%
- ML SF +175 / TEX -187
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.2%, market 64.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -179
- SF +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −5 | SF: Blade Tidwell: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +36 Elo | TEX 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 64.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 3022–38 | Road vs home | 28–2615th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–56 | 49–64 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 19–38 |
| Underdog | 39–31 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 52–51–10 | 59–47–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–4 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.