Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Seager homered to right center (418 feet), Osuna scored and Langford scored.1–5
- 2Burger reached on infield single to shortstop, Carter scored on throwing error by shortstop Henderson.1–2
- 2Carter grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Duran scored.1–1
- 1Holliday homered to right (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML BAL +131 / TEX -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +24 Elo | TEX 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–30 | Road vs home | 31–2611th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–57 | 50–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 20–40 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 57–54–5 | 60–49–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 11–15 TEX in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.