Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jose SiriBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras homered to right center (361 feet), Henderson scored.2–5
- 7Meckler singled to left, Schanuel scored.2–3
- 6Siri homered to left center (405 feet).1–3
- 4Mayo homered to left center (436 feet).0–3
- 4O'Neill homered to left center (426 feet), Henderson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML LAA +126 / BAL -134
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.8%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -129
- LAA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −5 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +55 Elo | BAL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–37 | Road vs home | 31–2916th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 28th of 301442 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–62 | 57–56 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 28–32 |
| Underdog | 43–40 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders | 50–62–1 | 57–51–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–16 BAL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.