Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Henderson tripled to center, Encarnacion-Strand and Alonso scored.4–6
- 7Encarnacion-Strand doubled to center, Cowser and Holliday scored.4–4
- 6Realmuto homered to left (396 feet).4–2
- 3Turner homered to left center (393 feet).3–2
- 1Alonso homered to right center (394 feet), Beavers scored.2–2
- 1Marsh grounded out to second, Schwarber scored, Harper to second.2–0
- 1Harper singled to left, Turner scored, Schwarber to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML PHI +100 / BAL -121
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.5%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -110
- PHI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +10 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 1.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 29–2715th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–63 | 55–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–46 | 26–32 |
| Underdog | 14–17 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 46–58–5 | 56–49–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.