Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-3
- Dean KremerPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Eduardo ValenciaBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Valencia homered to left (372 feet), McKinstry scored.0–14
- 7Malgeri singled to left, McGonigle scored.0–12
- 7Torres grounded out to third, Outman scored, McGonigle to third.0–11
- 6Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to right, Malgeri scored.0–10
- 5McGonigle singled to center, Valencia scored, Báez to third.0–9
- 4Torres homered to left center (402 feet), McGonigle scored.0–8
- 3Valencia singled to center, Keith scored.0–6
- 2Torres doubled to right, Báez scored and McGonigle scored.0–5
- 2Valencia homered to left (416 feet).0–3
- 1Keith tripled to right, McGonigle scored and Greene scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML BAL +123 / DET -149
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- DET: Elo 57.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -133
- BAL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +19 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +50 Elo | DET 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 29–2613th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Elo rating | 150611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–53 | 49–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–32 | 23–40 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 54–49–4 | 44–58–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 12–11 DET in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.