Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Encarnacion-Strand homered to right center (396 feet), O'Neill scored.7–6
- 10Jackson hit sacrifice fly to left, Ward scored.7–4
- 10Olson homered to right center (416 feet), Bart scored and Jarvis scored.7–3
- 10Jarvis grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hicklen scored, Bart safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Holliday, Jarvis to second, Bart safe at third on error.4–3
- 8Baldwin homered to right center (389 feet).3–3
- 4Holliday hit sacrifice fly to right, Ward scored.2–3
- 4Riley singled to center, Harris II scored.2–2
- 4Dubón hit sacrifice fly to center, Albies scored.1–2
- 2Encarnacion-Strand doubled to left, Holliday scored and Taveras scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML ATL +107 / BAL -129
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.7%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- ATL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +9 Elo | ATL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 28–2513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 6th of 301529 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–46 | 53–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 35–36 | 26–29 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders | 50–46–6 | 52–47–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–6 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.