Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6O'Neill homered to left center (400 feet).8–5
- 5McKinstry singled to right, Keith scored.7–5
- 5Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to left, Dingler scored, Keith to third.7–4
- 5Mayo homered to left center (390 feet), Holliday scored.7–3
- 5Taveras homered to right (416 feet).5–3
- 4Vierling hit sacrifice fly to center, Torkelson scored, McKinstry to third.4–3
- 4Lee reached on infield single to shortstop, Greene scored, McKinstry to second, Torkelson to third.4–2
- 3Mayo singled to left, Taveras scored, Holliday to third.4–1
- 2Lee hit sacrifice fly to center, McKinstry scored.3–1
- 2Beavers singled to right, Mayo scored.3–0
- 2Jackson grounded out to shortstop, Holliday scored, Mayo to second.2–0
- 1Ward grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Alonso scored, Henderson out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML BAL +108 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- DET: Elo 53.6%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -118
- BAL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +5 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 29–2510th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–53 | 49–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–32 | 23–39 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 53–49–4 | 43–58–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 11–11 DET in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.