Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Riley doubled to right, Mateo scored.3–2
- 9Holliday grounded out to second, Mayo scored, Taveras to second.2–2
- 8Alonso homered to left (419 feet).2–1
- 4Smith singled to left, Olson scored.2–0
- 2Smith singled to left, Harris II scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -114 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.0%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −3 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +14 Elo | ATL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–23 | Road vs home | 29–2614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 6th of 301529 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–46 | 53–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–36 | 26–31 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders | 51–47–6 | 53–48–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–7 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.