Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conine singled to right, Hernández scored, Hicks to second, Edwards to third.7–8
- 9Hernández singled to center, Lopez scored and Marsee scored, Ruiz to second.7–7
- 8Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to center, Stott scored.7–5
- 6Crawford singled to left, Stott scored on error and Realmuto scored on throwing error by left fielder Hernández, Crawford to second.6–5
- 6Realmuto hit a ground rule double, Bohm scored, Stott to third.4–5
- 6Bohm singled to center, Harper scored.3–5
- 2Lopez tripled to right, Marsee scored.2–5
- 2Marsee doubled to right, Sanoja scored.2–4
- 2Conine homered to right center (392 feet).2–3
- 1Hernández homered to left (388 feet).2–2
- 1Lopez scored on throwing error by shortstop Turner.2–1
- 1Lopez scored on throwing error by shortstop Turner.2–1
- 1Harper homered to center (419 feet), Schwarber scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML PHI -205 / MIA +167
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.0%, market 64.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -179
- MIA +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 3.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | +6 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 1.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.410th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 6th of 3029–22 | Road vs home | 31–238th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 7th of 301523 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–61 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 32–44 | 22–28 |
| Underdog | 13–17 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders | 44–57–5 | 54–49–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 29–19 MIA in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 48.