Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conine homered to center (424 feet), Stowers scored.6–8
- 7Edwards singled to left, Lopez scored and Marsee scored, Hicks to second.6–6
- 7Lopez singled to center, Ruiz scored, Marsee to second.6–4
- 5Hernández homered to left center (416 feet), Navarreto scored.6–3
- 5Lopez grounded out to shortstop, Ruiz scored.6–1
- 5Bohm singled to center, Harper scored.6–0
- 5Harper tripled to right, Stott scored.5–0
- 5Turner homered to left center (413 feet).4–0
- 4De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, Realmuto scored.3–0
- 3Stott doubled to left, Crawford scored and Sosa scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PHI -180 / MIA +148
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.9%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -159
- MIA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −14 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +41 Elo | PHI 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–24 | Road vs home | 33–236th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 7th of 301521 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–62 | 51–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 32–45 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 14–17 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders | 45–58–5 | 55–50–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 29–21 MIA in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 50.