Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-3
- Aaron NolaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 1Stowers homered to right center (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML PHI +114 / MIA -137
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 52.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | +3 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 1.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +15 Elo | MIA 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 6th of 3029–23 | Road vs home | 32–237th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 8th of 301522 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–62 | 51–56 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 32–45 | 22–28 |
| Underdog | 13–17 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders | 45–57–5 | 55–49–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 29–20 MIA in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 49.