Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Cowser singled to center, Ward scored.10–9
- 11Torkelson homered to left (391 feet), Valencia scored.9–9
- 11Holliday singled to left, Mayo scored.9–7
- 11Pozo hit sacrifice fly to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Mayo to third.8–7
- 8Mayo tripled to left, Henderson scored and Beavers scored.7–7
- 7Ward singled to right, Jackson scored and Holliday scored.5–7
- 7Holliday singled to right, Mayo scored and Taveras scored, Jackson to third.3–7
- 7Taveras singled to center, Henderson scored, Mayo to second.1–7
- 6McKinstry doubled to right, Greene scored and Valencia scored.0–7
- 5Lee hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored, Torres to third.0–5
- 5Báez singled to right, McKinstry scored.0–4
- 3McGonigle hit sacrifice fly to center, Báez scored.0–3
- 3Báez singled to right, Torkelson scored on error, Báez to second, Vierling scored on throwing error by first baseman Alonso.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML BAL +161 / DET -197
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- DET: Elo 56.1%, market 63.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -173
- BAL +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 20th of 3023–29 | Road vs home | 30–2611th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 150910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–54 | 50–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–32 | 24–40 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 55–49–4 | 45–58–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 12–12 DET in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.