Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-3
- Brett KerryPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pratt singled to center, Mitchell scored.3–1
- 8Turang singled to center, Chourio scored.2–1
- 4Bauers homered to right center (401 feet).1–1
- 1Soler doubled to left, Trout scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML MIL -162 / LAA +134
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- LAA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Brent Suter: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +85 Elo | MIL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3032–21 | Road vs home | 24–3228th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301563 | Elo rating | 144229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–50 | 50–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 38–41 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders | 49–57–3 | 50–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–2 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.