Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Angels- Denzer GuzmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Guzman homered to center (385 feet), Grissom scored.6–2
- 5Bauers homered to right (424 feet), Chourio scored and Contreras scored.6–0
- 5Turang homered to center (398 feet), Pratt scored.3–0
- 2Pratt singled to left, Bauers scored on error, Mitchell to second, Pratt to second, Mitchell safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Siri.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML MIL -179 / LAA +147
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.9%, market 61.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -158
- LAA +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.0 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +99 Elo | MIL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–21 | Road vs home | 24–3128th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301561 | Elo rating | 144329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–50 | 50–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 37–41 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 42–37 |
| Overs–unders | 49–56–3 | 50–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–2 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.