Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting1-3
- Kyle BradishPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to left, Crawford scored.8–0
- 6De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Stott scored.7–0
- 6Crawford singled to left, Realmuto scored, Crawford to second, Stott to third.6–0
- 5Harper homered to right center (419 feet).5–0
- 4Crawford grounded out to second, Marsh scored, Stott to second, Realmuto to third.4–0
- 4Stott walked, Bohm scored, Realmuto to second, Marsh to third.3–0
- 3De La Cruz homered to center (400 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -150 / BAL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.6%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- BAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +6 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 8th of 3030–26 | Road vs home | 30–2815th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–64 | 56–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–46 | 27–32 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 47–59–5 | 57–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.