Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting1-1
- Shane BazPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crawford singled to right, Marsh scored and Realmuto scored, Stott to third.5–0
- 8Marsh singled to right, Harper scored, Bohm to second.3–0
- 8Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.2–0
- 5De La Cruz singled to center, Stott scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML PHI -154 / BAL +127
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.0%, market 57.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -138
- BAL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 3.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +7 Elo | PHI 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 30–2713th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–64 | 56–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–46 | 27–32 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 47–58–5 | 57–49–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.