Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-3
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Angels- Wade MecklerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Neto reached on infield single to third, Guzman scored.0–3
- 2Meckler homered to right center (388 feet), Grissom scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 67%
- ML MIL -234 / LAA +190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.4%, market 67.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -203
- LAA +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 3.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +15 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +103 Elo | MIL 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 67.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–21 | Road vs home | 24–3328th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301564 | Elo rating | 144129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–50 | 50–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 39–41 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders | 49–58–3 | 50–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–2 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.