Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Leody TaverasBatting2-4
- Shane BazPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pederson homered to right (414 feet), Díaz scored.1–2
- 2Mayo singled to center, Taveras scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML BAL +131 / TEX -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +24 Elo | TEX 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 30–2611th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–57 | 50–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 20–39 |
| Underdog | 29–24 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 57–53–5 | 60–48–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 11–14 TEX in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.