Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran grounded out to third, Lopez scored.10–5
- 9Lopez tripled to center, Cauley scored.10–4
- 9Cowser walked, Beavers scored, Mayo to second, Taveras to third.10–3
- 6O'Neill homered to center (425 feet), Holliday scored.9–3
- 4Alonso homered to left center (404 feet), Henderson scored.7–3
- 3Nimmo homered to center (434 feet), Langford scored and Duran scored.5–3
- 2Alonso homered to left (393 feet), Henderson scored.5–0
- 2Cowser homered to center (441 feet).3–0
- 1Taveras doubled to right, Holliday scored, Beavers to third.2–0
- 1Beavers reached on infield single to first, Alonso scored, Holliday to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML BAL +116 / TEX -124
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.8%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- BAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +33 Elo | TEX 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 32–2610th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–58 | 51–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 21–40 |
| Underdog | 30–25 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 57–55–5 | 60–50–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 11–16 TEX in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.