Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KlassenPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jiménez singled to center, Ramírez scored.4–3
- 7Schanuel homered to center (399 feet), Trout scored.4–2
- 7Lowe scored on error, Trout safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Ekness.2–2
- 6Stowers singled to center, Marsee scored, Ruiz to third.1–2
- 4Stowers walked, Caissie scored, Ruiz to second, Marsee to third.1–1
- 1Trout homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 59%
- ML LAA +137 / MIA -147
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 61.8%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 4.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +6 | LAA: George Klassen: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +84 Elo | MIA 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–38 | Road vs home | 34–235th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–63 | 55–61 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 44–41 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders | 50–64–1 | 57–56–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–5 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 9.