Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Leo JimenezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jiménez singled to left, Hernández scored and Lopez scored, Marsee to second.2–4
- 8Acuña Jr. scored on Vodnik wild pitch, Harris II to second on wild pitch by Vodnik, Olson to third on wild pitch by Vodnik.0–4
- 8Acuña Jr. scored on Vodnik wild pitch, Harris II to second on wild pitch by Vodnik, Olson to third on wild pitch by Vodnik.0–4
- 7Riley homered to left center (433 feet), Thomas scored.0–3
- 2Albies homered to right (397 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML MIA +138 / ATL -147
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.1%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -142
- MIA +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +4 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +71 Elo | ATL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3024–32 | Road vs home | 36–202nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–58 | 63–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 38–38 |
| Underdog | 32–29 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 56–54–3 | 53–53–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 15–31 ATL in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 46.